Looking for a tech trade

I am hoping that tech stocks will give an opportunity for a neat trade sometime in the next 3-6 months. Currently the big-4 (Infy, TCS, Wipro and Satyam) are trading between 13x-15x P/E, one year forward. I am hoping that if/when the US recession is confirmed these stocks will get cheaper. At that time, hopefully, I will hold my nerve and buy.

Three possible scenarios
1. The US recession is short lived and growth resumes after a 2 quarter lag – This is the base case and the ideal scenario. My expectation is that tech stocks will perform will be on three counts.

Growth expectation – Once the recession is confirmed, analyst estimates will face downgrades. These will be upgraded when the economy starts emerging from the recession.

Currency ($) appreciation – The weak $ trend may be reversed once the economy gets back on the growth track, providing further fillip to revenue growth of Indian IT companies.

P/E expansion – This will be the real kicker to stock price appreciation. I hope to buy Infy around 12x. When bad news dissipates I expect P/Es to revert to 16x-22x for the big-4.

2. The US recession lasts longer – This can have a nasty effect on tech stocks. First, growth will disappear for a while; Second, the dollar will probably not recover for longer. Add to that higher importance investors will pay to things like higher tax incidence on Indian IT companies from next year. The result can be underperformance for a long time.

3. US economy does not go into a recession – If this happens Indian IT stocks (and others as well) will start rallying pretty soon. I would have missed the opportunity.

How much do I expect tech stocks to rally in my base case?
P/E expansion will probably provide 50%-80% return. Effect of volume growth on profit (i.e. difference between analyst assumptions after downgrades and subsequent upgrades) will add about 10%-15%. Currency appreciation can add a further 5%.